Mock Draft Rebuild Series: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
After the exodus of Tom Brady, there were naturally going to be a lot of questions about the Buccaneers, and if they were going to remain relevant in the 2023 season. Going with Baker Mayfield, there was naturally going to be a drop off, but no one saw Baker and the Bucs maintaining this level of success. Mike Evans had his 10th straight season of over 1000 yards, and added another 13 touchdowns to his career total. Rachaad White had nearly 1000 yards rushing and 7 touchdowns on the ground. The Buccaneers won their 3rd straight NFC South title, and fell just short of the NFCCG when they lost to the Detroit Lions in the divisional round. The Question is: What do they need? As of this moment in Free Agency, Baker Mayfield has singed a 3 year, $100 million deal. Mike Evans signed a 2 year, $35 million deal, and LaVonte David is returning for one more year as well. Shaq Barrett, Devin White, and Carlton Davis are the big departures, leaving some holes on the defensive side of the ball. The Bucs are benefiting from being in one of, if not the weakest division in football, and there are a few things that they can do in this 2024 draft that can help them win their 4th straight NFC South Title.
The Buccaneers don’t have a 5th round draft pick, but they do have an additional 7th rounder, giving them a total of 7 draft picks this season.
As always, we will be using the PFF (Pro Football Focus) Mock Draft Simulator to assist us in this draft, as well as any PFF rankings that come with the upcoming class of rookies. Lets begin:
Round 1, Pick 26
There are a lot of different directions that the Bucs can go here in the first round. Offensive Line seems to be the most pressing need, with the already present weakness at Guard from last season, and the retirement of All Pro Caliber Center Ryan Jensen, Center is now a massive need too. Players like Jackson Powers-Johnson will likely be gone by this point in the draft, and there aren’t any Guards that have a 1st round player grade on them. Defensive End can also be a good spot here for the Bucs. Calijah Kancey and Logan Hall are the two current starters, and while no disrespect to them, there are players in this draft that can be taken and take their spots on the field. Given the lack of depth on the Offensive Line in the later rounds of the draft, that seems to be the most prudent spot here for the Bucs.
Pick: Zach Frazier, Center, West Virginia
Frazier at this spot can be seen as a bit of a reach, and it is. Frazier should likely be an early 2nd round pick, but this is a point of huge need for the Buccaneers. Robert Hainsey, the current starting Center for the Bucs, was a 3rd round draft pick in 2021. Last season, Hainsey was mediocre at best, and ranked 2nd in the NFL with 9 penalties from the Center position. Frazier is a guy that can come in and start very early in his NFL career. At 6’3, 310 lbs, he has the size to contend with larger interior defenders. He is also a very solid run and pass defender. near or above the 80th percentile in both categories. Frazier graded out as the 21st best Center out of 295 eligible Centers. There may be other picks that are better fits, and Frazier is a bit of a reach at this point. But the success of an NFL Offensive Line starts on the interior, and the Bucs can improve the interior of their line significantly by drafting Frazier.
Round 2, Pick 58
Addressing one of the two largest needs for the Bucs was done in the first round with drafting Zach Frazier. This is a spot where they could double dip at the Offensive Line position with the Guards that are available, or they can move to the defensive side and start filling the holes that were made in this first wave of free agency. Guard, Edge, or Linebacker seem to be the positions at this point that can be taken, and can be early contributors on this team.
Pick: Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri
The 6’5, 295 lbs Edge rusher from Missouri is a player that can have his name called before this point come the NFL Draft. Last season, Robinson totaled 9 Sacks, 6 QB hits, and 27 QB hurries for the Tigers. Robinson is also a guy who offers versatility for any NFL team because he can play any position along the Defensive Line. Though he primarily played outside the Tackle last season, he can play anything from a 0 to a 7 technique. Power will be his game at the next level, and if he can develop some sort of speed capabilities, he will become a very capable NFL defender.
Round 3, Pick 89
With Rachaad White being the lead back, the Bucs need a Running Back behind him to spell his carries from time to time during the game. This might be a bit early to take a backup Running Back, but if they like the prospect, this is the time it could happen. There are other holes that are much greater for the Bucs, in my opinion, and I believe they stay in the trenches for a 3rd straight pick.
Pick: Christian Mahogany, Guard, Boston College
Mahogany is one of the better Guards in this class, and can jump into a starting role for the Bucs if he has a good training camp. Mahogany has only played Guard during his time in college, which some may think limits his ceiling as a pro. Mahogany struggles at times in Pass protection, often letting his hands drop below where they need to be, giving defensive lineman the upper hand (literally), but when it comes to run blocking, that is a different story. Per PFF, “He has an eraser’s mentality and will completely block his guy out of the play”. For a team like the Bucs that wants to focus on running the ball 25-30 times a game, and run the play action off of the run, Mahogany fits like a glove. If there were competition at his position, he may not be a starter right away in the NFL, but the Bucs have a massive need at Guard, and he is better than the guys that they have in house right now.
Round 4, Pick 127
Best available at a position of need is the mode of operations for NFL teams at this point. Running Back, Linebacker, Cornerback, Tight End, or more Offensive Line depth would all be good places to go for the Buccaneers. They will likely try to fill the holes that were made by the first wave of Free Agency, making Cornerback and Linebacker the most likely players to be taken at this spot.
Pick: Elijah Jones, Cornerback, Boston College
Elijah Jones’s final season with Boston College is one of 3 parts. The first 3 games of the season, he was decent, with his best game coming against Florida State. The next 3 games, he was mediocre at best, against teams where he should have done better against. His final 3 games is where he excelled, with grades of 91+ coming against Georgia Tech and Syracuse. Jones is also rising on draft boards because of the season he had as a whole. NFL teams will likely need to see more from Jones in order to feel confident in taking him, and to ensure that his performance last season was not a fluke. Grading out as the 22nd best Cornerback out of 852 Cornerbacks, Jones has the potential to make a name for himself in the NFL as early as his rookie season.
Round 6, Pick 204
At this point in the draft, the Bucs would be able to get the change of pace Running Back that would compliment Rachaad White nicely in the backfield. They can also fill a hole at Linebacker, or Tight End, which is entirely dependent upon who is available at this point in the Draft.
Pick: Cody Schrader, Running Back, Missouri
At 5’9, 214 lbs, Schrader does not fit the typical size for the Running Back position in the NFL. That does not mean that he can’t be successful in certain systems. Schrader averaged 5.8 yards per carry last season for the Tigers, to the tune of 1611 yards and 14 touchdowns. Schrader being the 2nd option to a guy like Rachaad White would allow him to excel in the limited opportunities that he would have. It would also allow him to grow more into his role, and should the opportunity present itself, he would be ready to be the lead back in a given system. Schrader will likely never be a 3 down back in the league, and that is perfectly fine. Schrader would excel the most in a system like the Buccaneers, where he doesn’t have to be the workhorse, every down back.
Round 7
Their final two selections in the 2024 NFL draft are in the 7th round, and the Bucs have done a nice job filling the holes that are currently on their roster. Free Agency is in full swing, and these holes can easily be filled with that avenue, but we do not account for that avenue as it has shown to be wildly unpredictable. Therefore, we will go forward with the information that we do have, and make the best choice.
Pick 244
Pick: Trey Knox, Tight End, South Carolina
Knox isn’t a guy that will be an All Pro, first team player at this point in his career, and he may never be that. But for a team that likes to run multiple Tight End sets, Knox can thrive. Pair Knox with a guy like Cade Otton, where he doesn’t have to be an end line blocker all the time, he can succeed. Knox graded with a 70.4 receiving grade per PFF last season, putting him right around the 75th percentile in the category. Knox will likely be a practice squad guy early in his career, but he can become a rotational player in the right situation.
Pick 255
Pick: Dallas Gant, Linebacker, Toledo
Gant is someone who would hear his name called much higher if he could rush the passer, and if he went to a much larger school. Gant graded out as the 15th best Linebacker out of 776 players at the position. Gant also graded out near the 90th percentile in both coverage and run defense grades. He is below average in pass rushing, meaning he will be a box defender at the next level. Gant can succeed at the NFL level, he just needs to show that he can. Given that he did not have as much exposure as the other Linebackers in this class have had, some NFL team is going to get an absolute steal with Gant in the later rounds.
The Buccaneers are likely going to win the NFC South again next season, if they continue to have a good free agency, and have a good draft like this one. The Falcons have done a lot this free agency, meaning it isn’t going to be easy for Tampa Bay, but with the players that they have on the squad, and if the rookies pan out, they should make the playoffs no problem next season, with an outside shot at the Conference title game. The Super Bowl likely isn’t in the cards this next season, but stranger things have happened, and there are players in key spots that have been there before. This wraps up the NFC South, we will be moving to the NFC West next, starting with the Arizona Cardinals.
